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Cher Gilmore: Just say no to Keystone XL tar sands pipeline

Posted: February 28, 2013 2:00 a.m.
Updated: February 28, 2013 2:00 a.m.
 

More than 50,000 people traveled to Washington, D.C., from as far away as California on Feb. 17 to demand that President Obama block the Keystone XL pipeline and move forward on climate action.

Thousands more gathered in solidarity in cities across the country — 6,000-7,000 in San Francisco and Los Angeles, for example.

 It remains to be seen whether or not Obama will listen, but if he doesn’t, he is likely to be remembered as the president who facilitated the destruction of the planet — just to benefit TransCanada’s bottom line.

The proposed pipeline would transport toxic tar sands oil from under Canada’s Boreal forest 2,000 miles through America’s breadbasket to the Gulf of Mexico, to be refined and ultimately exported.

Other than pleasing Canada, an important trading partner, there would be few benefits to the U.S. from this project, but many disastrous consequences if it goes through.

A critical issue is that the XL would accelerate global warming to such an extent that NASA climate scientist James Hansen says it would be “game over for Planet Earth.”

The pipeline would carry 900,000 barrels of dirty tar sands oil through the U.S. daily — the equivalent of adding 6 million new cars to U.S. roads.

During tar sands oil production alone, carbon dioxide emissions are three times higher than those of conventional oil.

And according to a new report from Oil Change International, previous climate impact analyses (including those done by the State Department) have entirely excluded the impact of petroleum coke (petcoke), a high-carbon byproduct which emits 5-10 percent more CO2 than coal and is actually cheaper than coal.

XL pipeline petcoke would produce 16.6 million metric tons of CO2 each year, and including it in impact analyses would raise the total annual emissions of the pipeline by 13 percent (Source: National Resources Defense Council).

There are multiple safety issues as well. For instance, the risk of a significant spill is real.

TransCanada’s first Keystone pipeline leaked 11 times in its first year of operation. A study at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln estimated that over a 50-year period, “91 significant Keystone XL Pipeline spills can be expected.”

A worst-case spill, the study concluded, could contaminate 4.9 billion gallons of water, potentially exposing hundreds of thousands of people to highly contaminated drinking water.

The XL would cross several major rivers, sensitive ecosystems, and a portion of the Ogalalla aquifer, which supplies drinking and agricultural water to two million Americans.

Further, roughly 400 million gallons of water a day would be needed for the tar sands oil extraction process — three barrels of water to extract each barrel of oil.

Ninety percent of the polluted water is dumped into large human-made “tailing ponds,” whose toxic sludge is full of harmful substances like cyanide and ammonia.

These have been known to work their way into neighboring clean water supplies. Canadian communities living downstream from these tailing ponds have seen spikes in rates of rare cancers, renal failure, lupus, and hyperthyroidism (source: Friends of the Earth).

Refining the oil (which would be done in the U.S.) also produces higher emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide than refining conventional oil.

These emissions cause smog and acid rain, and contribute to respiratory diseases like asthma.

Would the XL at least create jobs? According to the U.S. State Department, it would create 5,000 to 8,300 year-long employment opportunities, with only about 10-15 percent of those going to local workers in the states crossed by the pipeline (source: Friends of the Earth).

TransCanada’s claims of hundreds of thousands of jobs are simply not true.

A Cornell University study concludes that the XL would actually kill more jobs than it would create by reducing investment in clean energy (source: National Resources Defense Council).

It appears that the real winners in this undertaking would be the oil producers in Alberta, some refineries in Texas, and TransCanada.

We wouldn’t even be the recipients of the oil, which would be exported.

Do we really want to permit infrastructure that will accelerate global warming, despoil our beautiful country, endanger the water supply for millions of Americans, cause illness and suffering for countless people, seriously set back our plans for a clean energy future and give us no economic benefits in return?

I think not. The president should just say “No!” to the Keystone XL pipeline.

Cher Gilmore is a Santa Clarita Valley resident and is active in the Santa Clarita Chapter of Citizens Climate Lobby.

Feb. 28, 2013 02:00a.m. EST Cher Gilmore: Just say no to Keystone XL tar sands pipeline The Signal

More than 50,000 people traveled to Washington, D.C., from as far away as California on Feb. 17 to demand that President Obama block the Keystone XL pipeline and move forward on climate action.

Thousands more gathered in solidarity in cities across the country — 6,000-7,000 in San Francisco and Los Angeles, for example.

 It remains to be seen whether or not Obama will listen, but if he doesn’t, he is likely to be remembered as the president who facilitated the destruction of the planet — just to benefit TransCanada’s bottom line.

The proposed pipeline would transport toxic tar sands oil from under Canada’s Boreal forest 2,000 miles through America’s breadbasket to the Gulf of Mexico, to be refined and ultimately exported.

Other than pleasing Canada, an important trading partner, there would be few benefits to the U.S. from this project, but many disastrous consequences if it goes through.

A critical issue is that the XL would accelerate global warming to such an extent that NASA climate scientist James Hansen says it would be “game over for Planet Earth.”

The pipeline would carry 900,000 barrels of dirty tar sands oil through the U.S. daily — the equivalent of adding 6 million new cars to U.S. roads.

During tar sands oil production alone, carbon dioxide emissions are three times higher than those of conventional oil.

And according to a new report from Oil Change International, previous climate impact analyses (including those done by the State Department) have entirely excluded the impact of petroleum coke (petcoke), a high-carbon byproduct which emits 5-10 percent more CO2 than coal and is actually cheaper than coal.

XL pipeline petcoke would produce 16.6 million metric tons of CO2 each year, and including it in impact analyses would raise the total annual emissions of the pipeline by 13 percent (Source: National Resources Defense Council).

There are multiple safety issues as well. For instance, the risk of a significant spill is real.

TransCanada’s first Keystone pipeline leaked 11 times in its first year of operation. A study at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln estimated that over a 50-year period, “91 significant Keystone XL Pipeline spills can be expected.”

A worst-case spill, the study concluded, could contaminate 4.9 billion gallons of water, potentially exposing hundreds of thousands of people to highly contaminated drinking water.

The XL would cross several major rivers, sensitive ecosystems, and a portion of the Ogalalla aquifer, which supplies drinking and agricultural water to two million Americans.

Further, roughly 400 million gallons of water a day would be needed for the tar sands oil extraction process — three barrels of water to extract each barrel of oil.

Ninety percent of the polluted water is dumped into large human-made “tailing ponds,” whose toxic sludge is full of harmful substances like cyanide and ammonia.

These have been known to work their way into neighboring clean water supplies. Canadian communities living downstream from these tailing ponds have seen spikes in rates of rare cancers, renal failure, lupus, and hyperthyroidism (source: Friends of the Earth).

Refining the oil (which would be done in the U.S.) also produces higher emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide than refining conventional oil.

These emissions cause smog and acid rain, and contribute to respiratory diseases like asthma.

Would the XL at least create jobs? According to the U.S. State Department, it would create 5,000 to 8,300 year-long employment opportunities, with only about 10-15 percent of those going to local workers in the states crossed by the pipeline (source: Friends of the Earth).

TransCanada’s claims of hundreds of thousands of jobs are simply not true.

A Cornell University study concludes that the XL would actually kill more jobs than it would create by reducing investment in clean energy (source: National Resources Defense Council).

It appears that the real winners in this undertaking would be the oil producers in Alberta, some refineries in Texas, and TransCanada.

We wouldn’t even be the recipients of the oil, which would be exported.

Do we really want to permit infrastructure that will accelerate global warming, despoil our beautiful country, endanger the water supply for millions of Americans, cause illness and suffering for countless people, seriously set back our plans for a clean energy future and give us no economic benefits in return?

I think not. The president should just say “No!” to the Keystone XL pipeline.

Cher Gilmore is a Santa Clarita Valley resident and is active in the Santa Clarita Chapter of Citizens Climate Lobby.

Copyright 2011 MorrisMultimedia . All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed

Comments

ricketzz: Posted: February 28, 2013 10:19 a.m.

Attempting to squeeze oil out of sand is terrifyingly similar to coke fiends snorting gypsum from the shag carpet; denial that it's over. Plus the carbon footprint is in coal territory. We need to leave as much carbon in the ground as we can, if we expect to limit the damage we have already done. We don't want to trade our house for a couple eight balls.

If this pipeline is not built the Alberta Tar Sands will stop expanding; there is little public support for building a big pipe in Canada.


OldReliable: Posted: February 28, 2013 11:02 a.m.

Cher: "It remains to be seen whether or not Obama will listen, but if he doesn’t, he is likely to be remembered as the president who facilitated the destruction of the planet — "

Hey Cher... run, run, run! The sky is falling! Sheesh, more ridiculous left wing propaganda. What Obama is distructing is America's economy!


CaptGene: Posted: February 28, 2013 11:23 a.m.

"50,000 people traveled to Washington"

How'd they get there? Oh, and Cher, the new buzzword is "Climate Change", using "global warming" is too ironic these days.


Manq: Posted: February 28, 2013 11:26 a.m.

Best argument letter I have read in The Signal in a long while. Very persuasive.

Others should take a writing class like it appears Cher did.


Dumbounded: Posted: February 28, 2013 11:44 a.m.

Well Manq, how about some counter arguments?

I favor the continuation of developing green energy.

There are 200,000 miles of energy pipelines under our feet.

I favor the continuation of developing green energy.

The economy SUCKS and nobody is working. Energy could solve a lot of these problems if green maniacs like you and Cher would allow it.

I favor the continuation of developing green energy.

Unemployment is high and the President often talks about good paying middle class jobs. You know, like what they have in the energy sector.

I favor the continuation of developing green energy.

We have a massive debt. I believe this country could be a net exporter of oil and natural gas which would put a dent in our debt which could fund more programs that are dear to you.

I favor the continuation of developing green energy.

People like Cher drive me absolutely crazy. How do you heat your home? What energy drives your car? How are groceries delivered to your story? I could go on a thousand times, but hopefully the point is made.

I favor the continuation of developing green energy.

We develop and use energy in the cleanest way imaginable. Look at the skyline of LA and compare it to 1975. We use a lot more energy yet the sky is better? How can that be? Is it ok to simpletons like Cher that other countries rape their environment because we're concerned about a couple of elk in ANWR?

It's insanity, but I want to remind everyone that I favor the continuation of developing green energy.

However, the idiotic greens don't even like green energy. Build a solar farm? Oh no, a turtle might have to walk some extra to go wherever it is that turtles go do. Wind farm? Oh no, a bird might be killed. Electric cars? Where do simpletons like Cher think we get energy? From the electric fairy? There is nothing greens like except probably the near extinction of the human species or at least most of them living in caves.


Dumbounded: Posted: February 28, 2013 11:48 a.m.

And for our next show, I present Indy! Here we watch as Indy cuts and pastes dated data from the 70's showing we only have 6 minutes of "proven" oil reserves.


Indy: Posted: February 28, 2013 2:40 p.m.

OldReliable wrote: Obama is destructing is America's economy!
Dumbounded wrote: The economy SUCKS and nobody is working. Energy could solve a lot of these problems if green maniacs like you and Cher would allow it.

Cher,

Unfortunately while the environmental issues you noted are important, many Americans have been told that ‘greens’ hurt their economy and thus they dismiss the environment in favor of jobs. I can remember George W Bush saying as much that the environment will always be second to growth . . .

And that’s not unreasonable from their point of view since indeed we indeed all have to work to survive and ‘cheap energy’ from fossil fuels (ignoring the economic externalities of burning fossil fuels i.e. acid rain, mercury contamination, rising CO2 levels that effect climate change not to mention the hazardous chemicals you noted . . . ) is not easily replaceable.

Solar and wind today make up less than 5% of all energy sources in the world.

And if you add in the lobbyist influence from our fossil fuel companies to our congress and the road to a renewable will not be an easy one.

Interestingly, a Koch Bros. scientist that works as a professor at UC Berkeley found that indeed we as humans are affecting the climate by burning fossil fuels even though the funding given to him was more than likely to show the opposite effect.

In any event, the greater issue here is how we move to a ‘sustainable economy’ that will have to both move us to less polluting renewables energy while addressing the unsustainable population growth issue.

As it stands today, we’ve lost some 30 years of effort when Ronald Reagan ‘ripped’ the solar panels off the White House in favor of fossil fuels. All of that time would have made the economic transition easier but as we know, politicians see the ‘short run’ and not the long run. Thus, they advocated ‘drill, baby, drill’ over ‘let the sun shine in’ if you will.

So until we can get the focus on what the economic consequences are and get the public up to speed on same, we’ll have a tough time persuading even Obama to address renewables let alone climate change since he as well as other politicians, fear the type of comments I noted above.

They know the ’15 minute news cycle’ media will crucify any politician in office if the economy slows from any move to address climate change or renewables. And if the public isn’t ‘aware’ of the economic tradeoffs in place or what needs to be done to address sustainable growth, then the ‘wait’ will continue . . . even if we’re facing severe issues with climate change, environmental degradation, let alone dealing with unsustainable worldwide over population.


technologist: Posted: February 28, 2013 4:26 p.m.

"It remains to be seen whether or not Obama will listen, but if he doesn’t, he is likely to be remembered as the president who facilitated the destruction of the planet — just to benefit TransCanada’s bottom line."

Really? Narcissism aside, not event the President wields such power. It's hysterical hyperbole like the above that undermines any credibility the modern environmental "activists" possess.

Fact: You can't grow an economy without energy.
Fact: You can't meet the increased energy demands of an expanding economy via energy conservation.
Fact: Alternative energy production cannot for the foreseeable future meet baseline power grid and transportation fuel requirements.
Fact: No amount of government denial or mandates can alter the reality of the 3 factors above.

To further illustrate how disconnected from reality Ms. Gilmore and her fellow travelers in "solidarity" are, there's this:

"The demonstrators are hoping to convince President Obama to reject federal approval for the line, which aims to carry crude oil from Canada and North Dakota’s Bakken Shale to the U.S. Gulf Coast. But if opponents of the Keystone pipeline are going to stop the flow of crude, they are going to have to do more than just get arrested or hold a rally—they are going to have block nearly every north-south rail line in North America.

When it comes to the flow of northern crude to U.S. refineries, here’s the reality: No Keystone XL? No problem."

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2013/02/keystone_pipeline_protests_oil_companies_will_just_use_railroads.html

The environmental lobby would be more effective if it advocated rational energy policy and focused on research into feasible (non-subsidized) alternative, market competitive energy. The illusion of control via regulatory fiat is just that.


Indy: Posted: February 28, 2013 6:19 p.m.

I’d like to comment on technologist remarks above:

Technologist wrote: You can't grow an economy without energy.
Indy: Absolute truth. Without energy, we’re back to living off of current sunlight that would at best support about 1 billion people (we already have 7 billion people on this planet)

Technologist wrote: You can't meet the increased energy demands of an expanding economy via energy conservation.

Indy: Mostly true but need clarification. Increased energy is required for an ‘expanding economy’ but not indefinitely. We will reach the ecological limits to growth (resource constraints) and if we’re not thinking ahead regarding what a ‘sustainable economy’ looks like, we’ll have an economic crash who’s consequences will dwarf the ‘great depression’.

Technologist wrote: Alternative energy production cannot for the foreseeable future meet baseline power grid and transportation fuel requirements.

Indy: Absolute truth. Since we’ve failed to properly plan our energy future, the use of renewables is not viable for decades. The question, however, is how do we manage this transition, and again, how does this fit with ‘sustainable growth’.

Technologist wrote: No amount of government denial or mandates can alter the reality of the 3 factors above.

Indy: Somewhat true as long as we allow the fossil fuel interest to dictate our nation’s energy policy. In other words, fossil fuel companies are lobbying to protect ‘market share’ in the short run. Thus, the price of fossil fuels today doesn’t include their ‘long term depletion’ cost nor the environmental externalities like pollution. ‘We the people’ should be managing our government intelligently but since we’re again ‘out lobbied’, we’re left without a real guidance as to what a ‘sustainable’ future entails and instead focused on ‘short run’ economic gains that can’t be sustained.


Indy: Posted: February 28, 2013 6:20 p.m.

Technologist wrote: The environmental lobby would be more effective if it advocated rational energy policy and focused on research into feasible (non-subsidized) alternative, market competitive energy. The illusion of control via regulatory fiat is just that.

Indy: Here’s where the poster indirectly advocates ‘market fundamentalism’ that is based on markets being our best solution to long term energy management. This concept fails due to the ‘market share’ issue above as well as the ‘lobbyist’ effort from fossil fuel companies that discourage renewable energy alternatives.

The outcome of an energy policy based on ‘short term market share’ protection as well as avoiding cost from environmental externalities distorts the current ‘market price’ making alternative energy ‘uncompetitive’.

Thus, as we start to reach the limits of fossil fuels, the time to transition to alternatives will be too short to prevent economic collapse especially with a growing world population.

The pejorative remarks against government by this poster denies that true benefit of what government should be doing, that being the aggregation of knowledge that is used to chart our best course for the future that recognizes the issues I’ve noted but are buried under specious ‘anti-government’ assertions.

In conclusion, either we get to making our decisions on science and reality economics or risk losing everything we’ve got for short run interest that ignores long term consequences. Having a government currently ‘dominated’ by lobbist directed politicians is the real problem and something we’ll have to address in forums such as this.

Let’s hope the reporters read these debates and start asking better questions as well as ‘fact checking’ if the slogans and talking points presented to them as a proxy for real leadership are worthy reprint in the media.


technologist: Posted: February 28, 2013 8:38 p.m.

@Indy:

I've noted your partial dismissal of my commentary on this column as "specious", "anti-government" talking points. While you're entitled to your opinion, assertions aren't facts. Why the urge to categorize those who express opinions that differ from your own?

Ignoring the ad hominems in your posts, are you of the opinion that government directed activity has outperformed those of individuals participating in markets over the past 500 years?

Also, do you assume that alternative energy firms are pure and don't engage in rent seeking lobbying efforts?


JAFO: Posted: February 28, 2013 9:10 p.m.

Let’s debate the Keystone Pipeline again. Let’s not be too remiss with the facts. The oil derived from the Canadian tar sands is shipped by pipeline into the United States. As the scale of the operation increases with the volume of production so will the risks. A lot people who will build and operate the pipeline the pipeline will come from trade unions. Good middle class jobs for short term and long term. The standards for building will have to meet DOT requirements. The requirements for safety system for leak detection and corrosion control have been in place for a number of years. As is the case the inspection of our interstate pipeline has been ongoing for many years also. As general rule oil floats on water.
If I remember correctly Clinton and Rise favored the Keystone Pipeline due to lessening our need of Middle Eastern oil. The connection of our having to have a military presence Middle Eastern to insure oil to the west cannot be overlooked. “The Carter Doctrine”. It was not that long ago that the Air Craft Lincoln Carrier Battle group enters the Persian Gulf to counter Iran’s threats.
In my opinion green guys should not get a pass when assessing blame when it comes to the “Blood for Oil” statement. By all the influence used to hinder domestic production has an undeniable truth too.


Indy: Posted: February 28, 2013 10:00 p.m.

Technologist wrote: I've noted your partial dismissal of my commentary on this column as "specious", "anti-government" talking points. While you're entitled to your opinion, assertions aren't facts. Why the urge to categorize those who express opinions that differ from your own?

Indy: Your best solution to this issue is not to make such grandiose statements like ‘No amount of government denial or mandates can alter the reality of the 3 factors above.” that are obviously overreaching.

Further, why not be ‘specific’ both in your commentary and in addressing the points I made?

And why hide behind your assertion of ad hominems when again, you address no specific points?

As far as this remark: “are you of the opinion that government directed activity has outperformed those of individuals participating in markets over the past 500 years?”, why did you ‘ignore’ my statement “‘We the people’ should be managing our government intelligently but since we’re again ‘out lobbied’ which addresses the problem with our government being led by self-serving politicians that ignore economic reality and as well as basic business practices.

We have the best schools of management on earth yet our so called ‘leaders’ don’t leverage that for results. Why is that? Could it be they are more interested in their continuing to pander to the public’s ignorance versus educating them with reality based on content expertise?

Finally, you wrote “Also, do you assume that alternative energy firms are pure and don't engage in rent seeking lobbying efforts?”

I didn’t make that inference but indeed there’s no reason based in my comments that any firm could be lobbying our leaders thus the request that we get leaders using knowledge not political nonsense based on lobybing to make good long term rational decisions toward a ‘sustainable’ energy policy.

In any event, do you believe our energy policy should be based on short term ‘market share’ protection or long term sustainability?

Should be basing our long term energy policy on non-renewables that also threaten the environment?

And where to you stand on sustainable growth? Is that a concern to you?


Indy: Posted: February 28, 2013 10:06 p.m.

JAFO wrote: Let’s debate the Keystone Pipeline again.

Indy: The issue of the pipeline is being made in complete ignorance of the factors that affect having it in the first place.

We have to be careful that we don’t let our so called ‘leaders’ focus us on details while ignoring the big picture.

Fossil fuels are limited.

Tar sands are dirtiest of the sources for oil.

Regardless of the jobs possible or the safety of the line pale in comparison to the long term issues under debate here.

And holding on to the belief that we see our nation’s energy policy based on the ‘middle east’ is something that most Americans have been concerned since Carter when we were only importing perhaps 30% of our oil.

Now it’s 50% and was to up 70% before the recession.

There’s no question that Canada made out with the tar sands increasing their proven reserves.

But if power our economy on fuels that we know create climate change, where’s the logic in that?


technologist: Posted: March 1, 2013 1:00 a.m.

Top Sources of Net Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Imports:

Canada (29%)
Saudi Arabia (14%)
Venezuela (11%)
Nigeria (10%)
Mexico (8%)

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm

U.S. oil imports are falling to their lowest level since 1987

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/09/u-s-oil-imports-are-falling-to-their-lowest-level-since-1987/


ricketzz: Posted: March 1, 2013 9:21 a.m.

Global Warming causes Climate Change. We need to stop burning things. "Growth" must stop. Environmental devastation for "jobs" is foolish and short-sighted, not to mention "greedy". Talk about robbing your grandchildren; debt is abstract, loss of habitat is real.

If capitalism cannot adapt to a "sustainability" model it must be replaced. Perhaps we need to get on a war footing to realign our priorities. Anyone who pretends "business as usual" will last is in severe denial.


technologist: Posted: March 1, 2013 9:53 a.m.

"Perhaps we need to get on a war footing to realign our priorities."

Please expand and outline what this would entail, ricketzz.


Dumbounded: Posted: March 1, 2013 10:49 a.m.

"Growth must stop".

There you have it people. Ricketzz obviously hates the human race and his self loathing is quite pathetic.


Indy: Posted: March 1, 2013 11:42 a.m.

technologist wrote: U.S. oil imports are falling to their lowest level since 1987

Indy: What’s the current oil usage in the US?

And how much of that is imported?


Indy: Posted: March 1, 2013 11:45 a.m.

Dumbounded wrote: “Growth must stop".

There you have it people. Ricketzz obviously hates the human race and his self loathing is quite pathetic.

Indy: In reality your mocking of his comments is the ‘self-loathing’ that you accuse him of and not accepting resource constraints is putting billions of people at risk.

And you ignore basic economics that is based on scarcity. Why is that?

Understandably, the conservative outlets like Fox and Rush that promote ‘unlimited’ growth are lying to you.

But it’s what you want to hear, no?

If you read my post, the answers you seek are there . . .


technologist: Posted: March 1, 2013 7:07 p.m.

@Indy:

No doubt you're equally capable of performing your own research. As you pointed out previously, oil consumption is down from pre-recession levels.

Meanwhile:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/03/keystone-xl-pipeline-does-little-environmental-harm-us-finds/


Indy: Posted: March 1, 2013 10:16 p.m.

Technologist,

A good site for energy usage in the US: http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=US&trk=m#pet

It shows that we use about 18.9 million barrels a day but produce only about 10.1 with the balance coming from imports.

The media has of late been promoting that the US is the ‘leading’ oil producer in the world but they never note the issue of reserves which are found here: http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/

From that page, we have about 25.2 billion barrels but use about 7 billion per year just in the US giving us a period of less than 4 years of we only used US oil.

The comments made recently by US energy independence are misleading at best . . . and simply unrealistic at worse . . .

In any event, the oil reality is rarely noted by the media or any politician.

As far as the pipeline is concerned, both parties will discuss climate change but neither will have the courage to commit to renewable energy since there are no real ‘economic growth free’ options in the short run. In other words, since renewables are more expensive and will slow the economy, politicians know that the 15 minute news cycle will crucify whoever is in office as the ‘shift’ gets under way . . .

Anyway, those that dismiss the climate change issue do so by ignoring the science and appear willing to take the ‘risk’ that we can find other sources.

It’s of interest to note that one barrel of oil has the energy equivalent of about 25,000 man hours . . . and that barrel can be extracted in Iraq, for example, for about $1 a barrel even though the world market price per barrel is much higher than that.

So most likely as the article you cited noted, jobs will win the day and the consequences of climate change will be ignored longer by the politicians and public alike.

If anyone is interested, a good DVD on oil is: A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash

I don’t recommend this for the weak hearted . . .

An excellent book on oil: Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy [Paperback] by Matthew R. Simmons (Author) (Deceased) – former Energy Advisor to President Bush.

Very readable and an excellent primer on all facets of oil from discovery to production.


technologist: Posted: March 2, 2013 1:06 a.m.

The methodology used for proven USA oil reserves is very conservative and not necessarily indicative of recoverable assets as extraction technology isn't static.

Did you know that the USA is #3 in global oil production?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production


ricketzz: Posted: March 2, 2013 3:39 p.m.

Every barrel we leave in the ground is another moment of normalcy for your grand kids. The age of fossil fuel is ending. The yucky stuff served us pretty well but we have to stop burning.


technologist: Posted: March 2, 2013 3:58 p.m.

@ricketzz:

I cannot fail to note the multiple assertions about purported facts in conjunction with exhortations of what others must do.

"Perhaps we need to get on a war footing to realign our priorities."

Regarding your quote, do you envision the use of force to achieve your desired objectives?


Indy: Posted: March 2, 2013 7:12 p.m.

technologist wrote: The methodology used for proven USA oil reserves is very conservative and not necessarily indicative of recoverable assets as extraction technology isn't static.

Indy: Understandably, most Americans are unaware that we have so little reserves.

The knowledge used to estimate them is understandably imperfect but the lack of any awareness as to what a sustainable future entails leaves us in the current situation where it appears were just going to run off the fossil fuel cliff.

Since world population is still growing by some 70 million net per year, the demand for ‘cheap’ fossil fuels will continue and what’s ever available will just be used faster.

This is the motivation that the Canada’s tar sands provides in that the amount of proven reserves for them is perhaps 6 times the US figure.

And if no one wants to approach sustainable equilibrium, then getting to that oil is priority one as the current Keystone pipeline debate indicates.

As I stated before, nobody is really at fault here. I grew up going up the production curve for crude oil that peaked production back in 1970 at about 10 million barrels per day and now is around 6.

In any event, you’ll perhaps live to see this issue play out . . . I’m older and perhaps won’t.

But at least I feel it important to lay out the reality and them people can speculate as to whether technology will save them . . . provided that same technology is ‘affordable’.

Perhaps the tipping piont will be when Saudi Arabia reaches peak production as we did 40 years ago and no longer can be the ‘tap’ that many see it as when supplies get tight.

Interestingly, Iran has already reached peak production some years ago . . .

But if no attention is paid to sustainability, then it’s just who ends up winning the longest with most folks losing . . .

And indeed the US is the world leader in burning oil . . . roughly twice that of number two China http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum .

When other nations even get close to our usage, the proven reserves issue will really be seen . . .


Indy: Posted: March 2, 2013 9:37 p.m.

technologist,

Out of curiosity and since you use the technology handle, what is your technical background?

Are you a scientist? Engineer? Chemist?


technologist: Posted: March 2, 2013 10:55 p.m.

@Indy:

Have you noted that past predications of commodity scarcity have been laughably wrong? That applies to global population projections as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager

Regarding "peak oil", this contains some interesting points:

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2012/11/12/energy-independence-and-the-myth-of-peak-oil/

As to my technology background, I prefer to be evaluated on ideas, critical thinking and the ability to construct cogent arguments. Credential pissing contests are passé and irrelevant, wouldn't you agree?


Indy: Posted: March 3, 2013 12:28 a.m.

technologist wrote: Have you noted that past predications of commodity scarcity have been laughably wrong? That applies to global population projections as well.

Indy: Yes, I’ve read the work of Julian Simon as well but as we see, the advances in technology have really only ‘masked’ the problem and in some cases made it worse.

And yes, as we’ve seen drilling more wells is just drilling the oil out faster but it isn’t growing.

Additionally, the article notes ‘shale oil’ but in reality it’s ‘share wax’. The tar sands as well require a greater amount of energy to extract and process. Shale wax might even have a negative EROEI.

When we first started drilling for oil, the EROEI (energy returned over energy invested was about 100 (around 1950), now it’s eight) was far greater then today.

Here’s some graphical presentations of the EROEI over time . . . http://8020vision.com/2011/10/17/energy-return-on-investment-eroi-for-u-s-oil-and-gas-discovery-and-production/

In any event, Op-ed writers for business magazines are paid to promote positions that favor growth in the short run but ignore the long run.

Again, you’ll see the issue decided for good when Saudi oil peaks in much the same manner as Iran’s did.

Additionally, the E/C (energy per capita) ratio worldwide is falling since more production can’t keep pace with population growth let alone raise living standards.

Here’s a site that has the graphs . . . notice that they are somewhat flat due to recent technology to extract oil faster but overall, compared to the population growth curve, you’ll see that we’re in game that does show the constraints I’ve noted.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/

In any event, the public just needs to be alerted to this issue and plan accordingly.

Then whatever choices we make and so forth we’ll be held accountable for.

Finally, I don’t take any pleasure per se in putting forth statistics that require cut backs if you will but if we ‘run off the cliff’, the consequence will be far more extensive that if we plan ahead.

As far as you handle here is concerned, I was just curious that since you use one related to technology, if you were trained in that area, again, since you use that handle.


technologist: Posted: March 3, 2013 3:17 p.m.

@Indy:

On EROEI, I'll net out the discussion with a simple answer: Price. Market energy pricing will drive innovation in extraction and catalytic cracking methodologies to process petroleum reserves beyond the current desirable light, sweet crude. As long as the business model supports the existing energy infrastructure, it will persist. For example, note that Europe is paying on average twice the fuel costs in our state. When the economics are no longer sustainable, we'll innovate our way to fuel alternatives that make economic sense. This will occur organically without government or NGO coercion.

Example: Malthusian projections on global food supply and mass starvation reigned until Norman Borlaug's Green Revolution. Now, not so much. So it's forward to the next crisis du jour and the inevitable "solution" that the state must aggregate power and intervene to save us from ourselves.

You may posit that advances in technology only temporarily mask scarcity but history reflects a different reality. "Sustainability" is a new euphemism for an old idea that commodities and the wealth they produce must be centrally managed by a technocratic bureaucracy for the benefit of all mankind. This concept is inherently flawed as centralized entities are incapable of such control and rely upon static models of human behavior, i.e. the assumption that populations aren't dynamic and adaptable.

Regarding population, the root driver of resource competition, have you noted the trend is for decline? It didn't take draconian measures such as China's "One Child Policy" but a global recognition that outside of agrarian/pastoral societies, a family voluntarily limiting fertility leads to a more prosperous standard of living.

As to the poison the well assertion regarding business Op-Eds, truth and facts remain so without regard to source. Is it your assertion that 8020vision.com et al does not also advocate its policy vision? There's a natural tension of competitive ideas in open societies and individuals can determine what's in the best interest of themselves and their families.


Indy: Posted: March 3, 2013 3:53 p.m.

technologist,

You basic response is that ‘markets’ will solve the problem but as I’ve noted before, the protection of ‘market share’ in the short run creates problems with long term solutions like moving to renewable energy.

Add in the ‘market bias’ from the largest participants in say in the oil industry and the distortion to the long term gets even worse . . .

As far as prices in Europe for gas that has a lot to do with their taxes on gasoline. They’ve recognized their long term future isn’t based on fossil fuels which are import dependent.

In any event, its sounds great to say that ‘price’ will dictate the outcome but in fact prices of ‘cheap energy’ as their rise, will impact people significantly made worse by a unsustainable population growth.

China at least recognizes the issue and has told it’s people that unless they reduce their overall population they can’t support it long term.

Understandably, many Americans believe that they can act ‘individually’ and ignore the outcomes of when their individual actions create the unsustainability conditions we now face.

So I’d be cautious when seeing the actions by the Chinese as simply ‘forced’.

Even here we don’t acknowledge market forces in our tax policy that gives family child credits that distort the taxing process and don’t recognize the simple concept of ‘demand more, pay more’.

I also recognize that Americans having been bathed in folklore simply will find it difficult that economic scarcity does exist and will affect them.

I still believe ‘markets’ will prevail and be useful but governments can act to inform the public with the tradeoffs versus the pandering nonsense we get today from politicians that substitute their own self-interest as a proxy for real leadership including educating the public on the circumstances we face.

Blaming ‘faceless bureaucrats’ to me is just self-serving just like I could blame the accounts payable clerks in my company as if they had any authority to chart the company’s future. They, like the public, will be the victims of the poor leadership that is supposed to lead both entities.

In any event, I do appreciate you presenting the market fundamentalist side of things since the public needs to see that contrasted with a strategy that accepts economic scarcity and requires a sustainable approach.


technologist: Posted: March 3, 2013 4:49 p.m.

@Indy:

"So I’d be cautious when seeing the actions by the Chinese as simply ‘forced’."

Can you explain involuntary abortions and sterilizations otherwise? Please.

http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/2010/eap/154382.htm

We have fundamentally different ideas about the organization of free societies that cannot be reconciled, summarized thusly:

• Sovereign individuals acting in their self-interest
• Voluntary participation in free markets
• Maximum individual freedom consistent with the rule of law
• Limited government that recognizes natural rights that as inalienable

Vs.

• Collective responsibility
• Managed economies and markets (via government bureaucracies)
• Involuntary participation in regulated markets in alignment with social projects
• A powerful, centralized state that societies are organized around

Another word for what you deride as "folklore" is freedom. Lincoln aptly described the alternative this way:

"It is the eternal struggle between these two principles--right and wrong--throughout the world. They are the two principles that have stood face to face from the beginning of time; and will ever continue to struggle. The one is the common right of humanity, and the other the divine right of kings. It is the same principle in whatever shape it develops itself. It is the same spirit that says, "You toil and work and earn bread, and I'll eat it." No matter in what shape it comes, whether from the mouth of a king who seeks to bestride the people of his own nation and live by the fruit of their labor, or from one race of men as an apology for enslaving another race, it is the same tyrannical principle."

I too thank you for clearly outlining the collectivist ideology to be exercised by an energetic state ruled by elite technocrats. Alexis de Tocqueville described it as "soft despotism".

"It covers the surface of society with a network of small complicated rules, minute and uniform, through which the most original minds and the most energetic characters cannot penetrate, to rise above the crowd. The will of man is not shattered, but softened, bent, and guided; men are seldom forced by it to act, but they are constantly restrained from acting. Such a power does not destroy, but it prevents existence; it does not tyrannize, but it compresses, enervates, extinguishes, and stupefies a people, till each nation is reduced to nothing better than a flock of timid and industrious animals, of which the government is the shepherd."


technologist: Posted: March 3, 2013 7:37 p.m.

Some egregious examples to underscore my point about technocrats:

http://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2013/03/03/great-moments-in-state-government/


ricketzz: Posted: March 5, 2013 9:46 a.m.

Yes, I do envision using force because the Oil Corporations have declared war on us. Global Warming is the biggest existential threat to the USA and we need to call out the enemy by name.


Indy: Posted: March 5, 2013 9:10 p.m.

technologist wrote: Can you explain involuntary abortions and sterilizations otherwise? Please.

Indy wrote: “So I’d be cautious when seeing the actions by the Chinese as simply ‘forced’.”
From link: “During the year Puning City, Guangdong Province conducted two campaigns of "sterilization of married couples that have two children" during the year. According to the Puning government, the city conducted 8,916 sterilization procedures in April and more than 3,000 in September. Meanwhile, a report by the Southern Rural News, a paper belonging to the Nanfang Daily Group, indicated that if two-child couples identified for sterilization did not cooperate with family-planning officials or fled the area, authorities confiscated the couples' property or detained their family members. Detained family members were forced to take family-planning policy-learning sessions--officials forced at least 1,300 persons related to two-child couples to attend the learning sessions in April.”

Indy: I was referring to forced abortions but indeed there will be actions taken by the Chinese government to enforce their 1 child limit.

It would be nice if the citizens there fully understood the reasoning behind the population reductions including the famine and deaths that will result in the decades ahead of the Chinese resources are depleted due to over population.

Here in America, rather than deal with this issue, we just ignore it pretending that we are above and beyond resource constraint issues and just accept on going poverty as a reality and just ‘jaw’ the issue to death as we’ve done for the last 40 years or simply denigrate the poor by calling them ‘lazy’ to avoid addressing economic scarcity.

It would definitely be better that the Chinese used a ‘market solution’ such that they would be taxed severely if they broke their 1 child program.

I agree that forcing sterilization to be the last alternative . . . but what’s your solution?


Indy: Posted: March 5, 2013 9:16 p.m.

technologist wrote:
We have fundamentally different ideas about the organization of free societies that cannot be reconciled, summarized thusly:

• Sovereign individuals acting in their self-interest
• Voluntary participation in free markets
• Maximum individual freedom consistent with the rule of law
• Limited government that recognizes natural rights that as inalienable

Vs.

• Collective responsibility
• Managed economies and markets (via government bureaucracies)
• Involuntary participation in regulated markets in alignment with social projects
• A powerful, centralized state that societies are organized around

Indy: I appreciate your remarks that quite nicely summarize market fundamentalism that ignores resource reality.

We know that individuals acting on their own can’t see the big picture mainly due to time constraints from either working or raising their family.

Thus, ‘we the people’ government higher experts to assess our resource reality like the EIA and tell the public that their ‘individual decisions’ are not sustainable in many cases.

We can have a market economy as long as we realize the shortcomings of capitalism and try to avoid ‘social darwinism’ that is taking its toll even as I write this.

Why do suspect that wealth in America is concentrating over the last 30 years or so?

What is about capitalism that gives those with the highest incomes such an advantage above everyone else?

And what regulations in specific are you targeting?


Indy: Posted: March 5, 2013 9:29 p.m.

technologist wrote: I too thank you for clearly outlining the collectivist ideology to be exercised by an energetic state ruled by elite technocrats. Alexis de Tocqueville described it as "soft despotism".

Indy: You bring up several good points here.

First, as we are seeing today, we have politicians in DC that ‘pander to our collective ignorance’ and waste valuable time that could be done by ‘educating the public’.

Countless recitals of ‘folklore and ideology’ don’t address the major challenges we have going on today.

Thus, the Founding Fathers fought diligently to create a government to ‘promote the general welfare’ not to hide behind slogans and give the wealthy ‘cover’ in the form of lobbyist dictated ‘loopholes’ that aren’t helping ‘we the people’.

Wonder why the GOP won’t name the loopholes? If they did, the public would see clearly why they are ‘specific’ to wealthy individuals and companies. But I digress . . .

I describe such pandering political behavior as selfish and self-serving.

When our current leaders see ‘themselves’ as the main focus and refuse to lead our people in directions that benefit us all, that to me is just failure.

It’s wonderful to pepper any conversations that allows a more benevolent government made up of intelligent people looking out for everyone as being ‘collectivist’ versus the current shortsighted group of people we see today sitting in congress telling us how patriotic they are but appear detached, aloof, and seeing ‘we the people’ as an inconvenience to their daily activities.

In any event, any ‘for profit’ company is led by a group of managers that could easily be termed ‘elitist’ that you might assert ‘know better’ than the employees that work for them. The analogy you’re trying to fit to my words fits this perfectly. In other words, people at the top telling people at the bottom what to do.

But any successful organization ‘plans ahead’ and doesn’t just manage day to day chaos. The management of successful firms does ‘lead’ it’s employees by carefully articulating their ‘mission plan’, instructing employees to be ‘cost effective’ and providing a stable network of decision making that holds employees accountable for their actions - all within the 'resoruces' of that entity.

Sounds just like the ‘government model’ I advocate.

So what’s your alternative for managing for profit companies?

And how is that different from the collectivist view that you suggested above?


ricketzz: Posted: March 6, 2013 10:14 a.m.

There are no "free markets" except in the Underground Economy.



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