I like to consider myself a historian of city of Santa Clarita politics, specifically the City Council election process. I learned at the knee of local uber-historian John Boston for events before 1996, and have been building my own inventory of stories since then.
For the past many weeks, against the backdrop of a local election with accusations of secret cabals and unholy triumvirates - including a candidate's revelation of past misdemeanors that might disqualify them for certain security clearances and result in a red flag on most employer background checks - the engaged community got numbed with a tidal wave of bad news.
I can only conclude the job of pubic school superintendent must rank in the bottom 10 of worst jobs in the world. School principal would rank much higher.
Many complain that my numerical prognostications concerning the local City Council election hide some hidden agenda.
So the citizens of Santa Clarita, or at least the 13 percent of eligible voters (about 11,000 to 12,000 people) find themselves in the midst of a City Council election campaign, and those probably 800 discrete people who made themselves fans or friends of three candidates' social networking sites can monitor the every move of David Gauny, TimBen Boydston and Harrison Katz, the three challengers to the power of incumbency who look to mount an actual campaign.
When many people object to my election prognostications wherein I take the safe road and predict victories for incumbent office-holders, they state that I could not possibly know what will happen in any particular election. I agree with that assertion.
In his seminal work "The Black Swan," Nicholas Taleb lays much blame on the tendency to attempt to project out the future on Bill Gates and Microsoft.
This year I started watching the new Fox comedy/musical "Glee" to possess something to talk about with my college freshman daughter.
So the latest instance of dire public finances to rear itself in the Santa Clarita Valley relates to the Saugus Union School District, the elementary school district that serves the North River Valencia tracts, the Suncal development of Tesoro del Valle, the areas of Saugus proper and into Canyon Country on the Plum/Whites Canyon corridor.
I recently joined the social networking site Facebook to better monitor young adult children who live away from home, particularly a daughter in her freshmen year at California State University Channel Islands who seems to provide a real-time update every three seconds or so.
On Nov. 3, persons living in the parts of the Santa Clarita Valley outside the city limits of Santa Clarita could exercise their right to vote yes or no on three separate initiatives relating to governance.
When someone wins an election narrowly, probably one should never overanalyze the results. Especially in the Santa Clarita Valley, once a former and future candidate puts on the armor of incumbency, the race that placed them in that rarified place probably carries little meaning.
In the kick-butt second Star Trek movie installment, "The Wrath of Khan" Captain Kirk introduced the Star Fleet Academy simulation exercise "Kobayashi Maru."
Make no mistake. If Joe Messina gains a seat on the William S. Hart Union High School District board after the Tuesday election, it could represent a true sea change in the local politics of the Santa Clarita Valley.
I make my living with numbers. When one spends nearly 25 years in this pursuit, one becomes more and more adept at predicting numerical outcomes.