View Mobile Site
 

Ask the Expert

Signal Photos

 

Tim Myers: Elections, like sports events, are inevitable

Posted: November 10, 2012 2:00 a.m.
Updated: November 10, 2012 2:00 a.m.
 

On Nov. 2, 2012, the Valencia Vikings football team defeated the Golden Valley Grizzlies 49-0 to secure a Foothill League title. On Nov. 6, 2012, President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney to achieve his second term in office.

In retrospect, one could see the inevitability of both outcomes even before the contests transpired.

One finds the analysis simple in the case of the football game. Though both teams can only field 11 players at a time — and both teams possessed coaches, a game plan and practiced roughly the same amount of time to prepare for the season — the Vikings’ overwhelming pool of talent, experience and tradition made the outcome on that Friday night a foregone conclusion.

And in many ways one could find the result on Nov. 6, 2012, foreordained by the punishing mistress of demographics.

Republican Haley Barbour penned in an op-ed piece several weeks ago that the GOP found “angry white men” in short supply, and one found this played out on Nov. 6 with Romney failing to convert even one state in the Mountain West — Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada — from blue to red while the president achieved rather convincing majorities in these states with surging Latino and youth populations.

The Republican Party in general could not overcome some rather bizarre “own goals” by candidates in Senate races in Indiana and Missouri, ripe for the taking.

If one does not believe that words carry consequences, take the case of “legitimate rape” Todd Akin, who lost by a whopping 16 percentage points to the despised incumbent in Missouri.

Thankfully, the blue retention of my home state of Iowa and Wisconsin spared the nation any recount nightmare in Ohio or Florida, since even if Romney won those two states, his failure to convert ANY of those previous five doomed his election chances.

The same played out locally with demographics ruling the day. Scott Wilk, who basically designed the 38th Assembly District personally by pro bono work before the redistricting commission, ran down a thumping victory over Democrat Ed Headington.

Dr. Lee Rogers, bless his heart, would fall 55 percent to 45 percent (like I predicted) to the incumbent Congressman Howard “Buck” McKeon, R-Santa Clarita.

In admittedly a different district, Rogers would only get 6,000 more votes than Jackie Conaway, the challenger to McKeon in 2010 who mounted NO credible campaign.

(I hope I can remain friendly with Dr. Rogers, a wonderful candidate and gracious man. Remember, I just make these predictions — I don’t cause them!)

Ironically, this comfortable result makes the (alleged) thug behavior and media control exerted by the McKeon campaign laughable. What actually frightened them in this campaign?

In allied results from nearby (and not so nearby) places, for the first time in a long time a substantial portion of the SCV will be represented in the state Senate by a Democrat, Fran Pavley from Agoura Hills, who achieved a rather comfortable victory over Republican Todd Zink in the (slightly) Democratic-leaning redrawn district.

Local political powers Bob and Lynn Haueter will also need to seek new employment. Up the coast, Lois Capps gang stomped Bob’s employer, Abel Maldonado, in the newly drawn coastal congressional district.

Lynn’s employer, Tony Strickland, will end his time in the state Senate and will most likely not go to Washington. (More on that thrilling development below.)

But I obtain most satisfaction from the (probable) defeat of the feckless Tony Strickland in his bid for the congressional seat (sort of) vacated by Elton Gallegly of Simi Valley.

Mr. Strickland, one-half of the married political duo with Audra Strickland, both somewhat reviled by many in Ventura County, serially moving from one elected position to another, will finally see the end of their run and the inability to obtain the electoral golden ticket; an office without term limits.

To poor salt into the wound, Hannah Beth Jackson, whom Strickland defeated in 2008, will go to the state Senate in the somewhat different district that Mr. Strickland decided not to defend.

After what Strickland did in withdrawing support from Scott Wilk in the 38th Assembly jungle primary and endorsing Patricia McKeon, it appears the karmic wheel, inevitably, slammed very hard.

Tim Myers is a Valencia resident. “Myers’ Musings” appears Saturdays in The Signal.

Comments

Commenting not available.
Commenting is not available.

 
 

Powered By
Morris Technology
Please wait ...