View Mobile Site
 

Ask the Expert

Signal Photos

 

Obamicans, come out, come out wherever you are

Posted: November 15, 2008 9:52 p.m.
Updated: November 16, 2008 4:59 a.m.
 
I will present a numerical fact. Barack Obama crushed John McCain in a most nasty way, beating the Republican by in excess of 7.5 million actual votes.

Barack Obama also received MORE absolute votes than any other candidate in history.

In a crushing electoral college victory Barack Obama seized eight states won by George Bush, including the thought to be Republican leaning state of Florida.

Barack Obama seized two southern states (Virginia and North Carolina) and drew a blue swath all the way from Maine to Iowa, including the state of Indiana that voted last for a Democrat in 1964.

Most astoundingly, Barack Obama demolished John McCain in the three largest intermountain states of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, racking up a 17 point margin in New Mexico and an astounding 12 point margin in Nevada, thought to constitute a toss up state just days before the election.

Everyone expected Barack Obama to carry the electoral vote rich state of California, but not in such a big way.

Barack Obama painted every coastal county in California (where the people are) with the exception of Orange County. Most importantly, Obama turned the reliably Republican San Diego County blue by a substantial margin.

But I did not expect my candidate to do well in the incredibly Republican SCV.

For months leading up to the election Gary Horton and I would meet weekly for dinner at Mulligan's in Valencia (Shout out for the British Burger and the best steak fries in the world!)

We would spend about one-half the time discussing business and the other half discussing politics, primarily our "Obamican" (Republicans who support Barack Obama.) efforts to assure the election of the 44th president of the United States.

Generally, we spoke in hushed voices, not out of shame or fear, but because we assumed the SCV would follow the Republican candidate, McCain, by the same ratio they followed Bush v. Kerry in 2004, with Bush besting Kerry in the SCV by a full 18 percentage points.

Therefore, I believed we stood a 60 percent chance of accidentally engaging with some whack job or yahoo trying to assert that Obama was a secret Muslim, not a citizen, socialist, take your pick, and life is just too short, so we kept quiet.

However, it turns out that we had a 50-50 shot of meeting a fellow Barack Obama supporter in the most Republican SCV, since it turned out that John McCain bested Barack Obama in the SCV by the narrowest of margins; a mere 0.2 percent or 321 votes.

Also, I can prove mathematically that we had a one in ten chance of running into a true fellow traveler; another Obamican. I determined this without running a quirky exit poll. Here is how.

The SCV cast 80,000 votes for president, nearly evenly split between Barack Obama and John McCain.

The SCV cast a little less than 76,000 votes in the Congressional race between Buck McKeon and Jackie Conaway, the invisible candidate.

In that race the long-time incumbent beat the noncompetitive challenger 63 percent to 37percent; a margin 8 percentage points LARGER than the Bush/Kerry margin in 2004.

Now I believe one can reasonable conclude that in the case of the congressional election, only a registered Democrat or Democrat leaning independent would cast a vote for Jackie Conaway since she did not really campaign.

I know I voted for Buck McKeon right after I marked in my ballot for Barack Obama. Conversely then, every Republican and Republican leaning independent voted for Buck.

Now remember that 4,000 more people voted for the office of president in the SCV, so if we assume those votes evenly split between John McCain and Barack Obama, if John McCain captured the same Republican and Republican leaning independent vote that Buck McKeon received, McCain would receive 8,500 more votes than he actually did.

In other words, Barack Obama peeled 8,500 Republicans and Republican leaning independents who voted for Buck McKeon away from John McCain!

To put this in perspective, this number of 8,500 defecting Bush voters exceeds the TOTAL amount of registered voters residing in Stevenson Ranch!

So for those McCain voting Republicans who voted for McCain and cannot understand how he lost, and can REALLY not understand how he only narrowly won in the SCV, a full 17 percent of your brethren defected and went to the other side.

Maybe one should hunt for them in Stevenson Ranch.

Tim Myers is executive vice president and chief financial officer of Landscape Development Inc. in Valencia. His column represents his own views, not necessarily those of The Signal.

Comments

Commenting not available.
Commenting is not available.

 
 

Powered By
Morris Technology
Please wait ...