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Scott Thomas Wilk: Outperforming Nostradamus: 2010 predictions

Right Here, Right Now

Posted: January 28, 2010 9:37 p.m.
Updated: January 29, 2010 4:55 a.m.
 
What is up with all the movies and TV shows about Nostradamus and his prediction the world will end in 2012? Personally, I’m not impressed.  

Anyone can make a prediction, but making a prediction and staying around long enough to be held accountable is what counts.

These are my predictions for 2010.

All three Santa Clarita City Council incumbents will prevail. While it seems like all of our institutions have been failing us — Wall Street, Sacramento, etc. — our city has managed to continue providing public safety and other services without raising taxes.

Mayor Laurene Weste and City Council members Frank Ferry and Marsha McLean will defy the anti-incumbency fervor and be easily re-elected.

TimBen Boydston will become the front runner for the 2012 City Council race. City Hall whispers indicate Councilman Bob Kellar will not seek re-election, meaning there will be at least one open seat.

If local history is any indicator, the runner-up candidate in the 2010 City Council race will become the heir apparent in the 2012 campaign. Will Kellar give up his seat knowing he will be handing it off to Boydston? You’ll have to wait for my 2011 predictions.  

City Council candidate Henry Schultz will exceed expectations. Schultz has run several times before, and did well in 2004 when he was the only challenger on the ballot. The local Sierra Club president is hard working, smart and a man of good will. Schultz will finish just behind Boydston.

Our well-respected state Sen. George Runner will prevail in a very competitive GOP primary for a seat on the state Board of Equalization. For this Republican-leaning seat, winning the primary is the election (like winning the AFC Championship Game). November will just be a formality.

The Tea Party movement will grow stronger, not weaker. The “Massachusetts Miracle” of state Sen. Scott Brown’s upset win in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election will only add fuel to the movement’s fire.  

Independent voters will decide which party prevails in November. When I was young, I was taught campaigns are about base voters, not swing voters. However, I predict 2010 will be different.

As voters have lost confidence in both major parties, the decline-to-state voting ranks have swelled. In the 2008 presidential race, independent voters cast their ballots for Barack Obama by a 2-1 margin.  A little more than a year later, polling shows those numbers have flip-flopped.  

Despite having no message or messenger, Republicans have a banner year: A tsunami is coming in November, and if the Republicans are smart they will ride a voter tide stronger than their 1994 landslide.

The GOP has benefitted from not having a “messenger” — that is why the Obama administration has set up “straw man” targets such as Rush Limbaugh.

In all of the national polling the GOP is leading by a comfortable margin in the generic congressional ballot. When your opponent is digging himself a hole, don’t prevent him from digging deeper.

Congressman Howard “Buck” McKeon will become the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. In the aftermath of the Massachusetts Miracle a new wave of House Democrat retirements will occur. The GOP needs to pick up 40 seats in the House. The final tally will be closer to 50.

The Democrats’ Senate margin will be trimmed to 52-48. As for the Senate, the GOP will pick up at least seven seats, including Democrat seats in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Dakota.

If Republicans can coax Rudy Giuliani into the race against Sen. Chuck Schumer, it will be another GOP pickup.

California Democrats will fall short in their bid to acquire a veto-proof majority in the state Legislature. Democrats desperately want a two-thirds majority in each house so they can raise taxes on California’s hard-working families.

Independent voters are going to protect the taxpayers’ pockets by denying the Democrats a veto-proof majority in the state Assembly.  

House Democrats will pull the plug on the San Francisco experiment. No matter what happens, the Democrats will replace Speaker Nancy Pelosi with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., after November’s election. Hoyer is smart, tough and a moderate. He’ll be an effective leader for the Democrats.

I don’t know if the world will end in 2012, but I do know 2010 is going to be a Republican year.

Scott Thomas Wilk is a member of the California Republican Party and elected member to the Los Angeles County Republican Party. He is president of Liaison Communications, a public-affairs firm. He can be reached at scott@liaison-communications.com. His column reflects his own views and not necessarily those of The Signal. “Right Here, Right Now” runs Fridays in The Signal and rotates among several local Republican writers.     

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